Monday, 24 July 2017

More on the Arctic sea ice melt

A cross-section of what is happening in the Arctic. 

My guess (as an untrained but interested eye) is that all that stands between us and a (near) Blue Ocean Event is the weather.

And that doesn’t look too flash at the moment.

Arctic sea ice: "It looks very ugly what is unfolding"



The Typhoon autogun in the Pacific and the effects on the Beaufort gyre dynamics have been giving me a very sick feeling in my gut the last 24hrs. It looks very ugly indeed what is unfolding.

First Animation:



Total Precipital Water and surface winds,
Winds at 1000hpa,
Temps and winds at 850hpa,
3hr precipitations of 6mm over the the outer CAA and 850hpa winds,
and total cloud water simular to the record flood last week in Japan nth of Barrow with 700hpa winds.

This Junks looking to continue for some time with south and west winds from Norway to Chukchi to Greenland coastal. If not dumping lots of water vapour into the basin, its making hot foehn winds off Europe, Siberia, Alaska, the CAA, and Greenland. And pushing warm Pacific and Atlantic waters in at accelerated rates.

As for the effects on the Beaufort Gyre and Ice.

The Eastward surface drift from all these Westerly's, is and will continue to disperse the loose fringes and fresh meltwater to the right, de-consolidating the pack and exposing the meltwater and river Fluxs to rising salinity by mixing with the inbound waters they are riding over above the shallow continental shelves. Bottom structure and Methane venting will enhance this of course.

First frame shows:

Along with Pacific end SST anomalies, marked where the spreading meltwater is butting up against the still eastward moving pacific waters east in the ESS and a strong and large mixing vortex in process. These are popping up all along the meltwater front and the Strong inflow through Bering has in the last few days swung from heading in that direction to straight ahead towards the pole sliding down the slope under the Chukchi front, to bending to the east and heading for the CAA along the shelf instead.

Second Frame:




SST of 10.7C on strong inflow Thru Bering just mentioned. Mixing Vortexes even clearer. Clockwise rotating Pacific water bending northward as its sucked under anticlockwise rotating melt and debris intent on escape from the pack and heading south, you gotta expect them.

Third Frame:


1.72m swells eastbound, against current, into the Beaufort pack and CAA. Slightly bigger ones actually heading straight north into the pack from Bering in the Chuckchi.

Fourth Frame:

Track log plots of ITP buoys 97 in the Beaufort and 95 at 85nth heading for Fram.

Fifth Frame:


Observe the deep core of fresher water penetrating the halocline surface to depth in the lefthand ITP 97 plot. Deep mixing events on its fringes. This the Gyres "flywheel", a large reserve to maintain the Halocline, in the middle of the Canadian basin. Not much disturbance in the Temperature plots above it. A little warming and thinning of the Gulfstream Layer it penetrates from energy extracted as its feeds have punched through. About 0.5 degrees warmer and around 1% saltier than the Layer above the Atlantic from about 300m to 50m from the surface. Though recently the surface temp has spiked to just below Zero as we've noticed on the Buoys thread. ITP 97 seems to be in the fringes of the pack where the deep Gyre ramps up the Alaskan slope Right about in the middle of this

Frame 5, today's worldview shot.

-ITP 97 right about in the middle.

Frame 6 shows the westbound current coming up here at 0C.

So anyway, the Gulfstream water that has been surfacing at 15-16C around, Svalbard and FJL, and just loves to hug the right by the Right Hand Rule of mr Coriolis North.

Should it not meet Pacific, and surface stuff head on at Severnaya Zemlya thats Westbound as traditional in a high pressure dominated Eastern Basin. Keen to take it by the hand and ride it out off the shelf into the deeper basin...

Perhaps Gulf Snake will be fresh and warm enough to climb on top, or even socialise a little with Pacific eel. Assisted by big late snow-melts and an open Russian coast, and a slide beneath a few thousand km of fresh melt pool south of Norway.

With a largely Low pressure dominated east with a reversing Gyre, and Cooler inbound stuff from a full or partial anticlockwise deep salty racetrack that it can team up with and python coil the heart of the Ocean.

Then instead of a big reserve of low density fresh pycnocline pushed down in the middle of the eastern Basin.....

That which is there will all be flinging itself out through the CAA and down both coasts of Greenland , as the Turbo Pump from both Oceans swirls all around squeezing it out from below.


I'm deeply worried that this is starting already


Today Worldview has very clear but imho horrible images of the area north from Svalbard and north to north east from Greenland










« Reply #3088 on: Today at 12:26:41 AM »

Images of a warm Atlantic water current which is pushing beneath sea ice in the Fram Strait. A large landfast piece of sea ice will shortly detach. Further fractures appeared in the land fast ice. A removal of yet another slow-down feature slowing southward sea ice transport from the Arctic.

From 2009

What was still possible to talk about 8 years ago is now taboo.

I supose if I was a denier and immune to facts and data I might say it was all made up.

We know better.

Multiyear Arctic ice is effectively gone: expert



30 October, 2009

OTTAWA (Reuters) - The multiyear ice covering the Arctic Ocean has effectively vanished, a startling development that will make it easier to open up polar shipping routes, an Arctic expert said on Thursday.

Vast sheets of impenetrable multiyear ice, which can reach up to 80 meters (260 feet) thick, have for centuries blocked the path of ships seeking a quick short cut through the fabled Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific. They also ruled out the idea of sailing across the top of the world.

But David Barber, Canada's Research Chair in Arctic System Science at the University of Manitoba, said the ice was melting at an extraordinarily fast rate.

"We are almost out of multiyear sea ice in the northern hemisphere," he said in a presentation in Parliament. The little that remains is jammed up against Canada's Arctic archipelago, far from potential shipping routes.

Scientists link higher Arctic temperatures and melting sea ice to the greenhouse gas emissions blamed for global warming.

Barber spoke shortly after returning from an expedition that sought -- and largely failed to find -- a huge multiyear ice pack that should have been in the Beaufort Sea off the Canadian coastal town of Tuktoyaktuk.

Instead, his ice breaker found hundreds of miles of what he called "rotten ice" -- 50-cm (20-inch) thin layers of fresh ice covering small chunks of older ice.

"I've never seen anything like this in my 30 years of working in the high Arctic ... it was very dramatic," he said.

"From a practical perspective, if you want to ship across the pole, you're concerned about multiyear sea ice. You're not concerned about this rotten stuff we were doing 13 knots through. It's easy to navigate through."

Scientists have fretted for decades about the pace at which the Arctic ice sheets are shrinking. U.S. data shows the 2009 ice cover was the third-lowest on record, after 2007 and 2008.

An increasing number of experts feel the North Pole will be ice free in summer by 2030 at the latest, for the first time in a million years.

"I would argue that, from a practical perspective, we almost have a seasonally ice-free Arctic now, because multiyear sea ice is the barrier to the use and development of the Arctic," said Barber.

Fresh first-year ice always forms in the Arctic in the winter, when temperatures plunge far below freezing and the North Pole is not exposed to the sun.

Shipping companies are already looking to benefit from warming waters. This year two German cargo ships successfully navigated from South Korea along Russia's northern Siberia coast without the help of icebreakers.

The Arctic is warming up three times more quickly than the rest of the Earth, in part because of the reflectivity, or the albedo feedback effect, of ice.

As more and more ice melts, larger expanses of darker sea water are exposed. These absorb more sunlight than the ice and cause the water to heat up more quickly, thereby melting more ice.

Barber said the ice was now being melted both by rays from the sun as well as from below by the warmer water.

Scientists are also seeing more cyclones, which pick up force as they absorb heat from the warmer water. The cyclones help generate waves that break up ice sheets and also dump large amounts of snow, which has an insulating effect and prevents the ice sheets from thickening.

After a long search, Barber's ice breaker finally found a 16-km (10-mile) wide floe of multiyear ice that was around 6 to 8 meters (20-26 feet) thick. But as the crew watched, the floe was hit by a series of waves, and disintegrated in five minutes.

"The Arctic is an early indicator of what we can expect at the global scale as we move through the next few decades ... So we should be paying attention to this very carefully," Barber said.


Multi-year ice in Arctic has melted


I saw this expressed a different way – only 6% of multi-year ice, relative to 1984, remains.

95 % of multi-year Arctic sea ice is GONE




«"What good is extent if thickness is incomparable to 2012?

 What's left over is very thin. 95% of 2 meter ice is gone now, 99% of the 3,4 and 5 meter ice too."


I agree. It is very bleak. 2012 was still melting through multi-yr ice of 2-3M 
thickness, 

2017 is going to be feasting on 1-1.5M ice that hasn't seen a summer 
yet. 

The losses vs. all other years over the next 30 days are going to mount to 
absurd levels due to the volume deficit which is now going to manifest in 
continued area/extent drops. 

It's as if nearly the entire Arctic was covered in the ice of Hudson Bay.»


Sergei Lavrov inerviewed By NBC "journalist"

How does a well-mannered, experienced statesman and diplomat respond to an imbecile and pratt like this “journalist”?

Sergei Lavrov interviewed on NBC


Are you a "male supremacist"?

Liberal fascist nonsense at the End of Time

We all know about the rightwing extremists of the American Taliban trying to put women back in the box with medieval ideology.

Now we’ve got the liberal Left, in the form of neo-feminism, in on the act.

I will not call the people propagatng these idea feminists because it has nothing in common with the classic feminism I'm familiar with (and support).

Admittedly this is on social media but it is all part of the movement to “manufacture consent” for absolutely mad “ideas”

Forty years ago I learned in biology that there are TWO genders (or sexes, if you prefer) and two types of chromosome ‘x’ and ‘y’

Now, in this Brave World we are being told that this is nonsense and you can chose whatever bloody sex you like and people have no right to question this nonsense by insisting on science.

In a era where any idea of ‘social pogress’ is dead because of the rapid collapse of western societies (with a corresponding collapse in moral and ethical values) we are being presented with a dose of propaganda for ‘identity politics’

I will stand up for the rights of my sisters while there is still breath in my body but – excuse me – there are only TWO sexes in this world.





I guess the following will make me a ‘MALE SUPREMACIST”
Rather, I will call this by its name - FASCISM


Speech by Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah

Hassan Nasrallah : Saudi Arabia wants to sell Palestine to Donald Trump




Speech by Hezbollah Secretary General Sayed Hassan Nasrallah on June 23, 2017, on the occasion of the International Day of Al-Quds (Jerusalem)

CrossTalking Donald Trump

CrossTalk: Will Trump Survive?




It is probably fair to say no other American president is more controversial than Donald Trump. With so many powerful forces arrayed against him, can he succeed? Even stay in office? We will see. However, legitimizing the destructive means employed against Trump maybe the lasting damage.


CrossTalking with Rob Taub, Sameera Khan, and Zach Haller.

Mid-summer hailstorm in St Petersburg

RT has its own way of making light of something that, taken in context, is extremely UNfunny.


Snowballs in July? St. Petersburg covered with piles of ‘snow’ 


Snowballs in July? St. Petersburg covered with piles of ‘snow’ (PHOTOS, VIDEO)

RT,
23 July, 2017


Fancy throwing snowballs in summer or going barefoot and T-shirt-clad during a ‘snowfall’ in July? This weekend in St. Petersburg, Russia would have been perfect after a heavy hailstorm hit the city.

On Saturday, streets in St. Petersburg were covered with piles of snow and the roads resembled winter rivers. City residents took to social media to share the unusual summer scenery.

Just last month, Moscow also fell victim to the whims of nature when snow fell upon the Russian capital just as summer was beginning.


The miserable luck with the weather didn’t end there as heavy rain hit the city over and over again, while temperatures remain below normal for this time of year.





Information wars

Legal Fears Push Newsweek to Delete Eichenwald’s Articles Used to Smear Sputnik News





Failing US magazine Newsweek once again finds itself on the ropes.

For the last year, US mainstream media outlets have given themselves license to freely spray any and all slanderous accusations regarding Russia into the public domain, and about Russian-based media outlets in particular. One of the primary motivations for this festival of defamation is of course political. Early on in the general election the ‘Russian conspiracy’ theory was promulgated by the White House and the Clinton campaign and the mainstream media in order to damage Trump’s credibility. After Clinton’s epic loss, legions of Democratic Party affiliated journalists and Hillary Clinton supporters in the media are still angry and upset about their election loss and do not accept Donald Trump as their President. As a result, many journalists are still using their positions in media to act out in public, and mostly with the full backing of their like-minded editors and media executives.

While most of the endless scapegoating and lies about Russia and Trump continue as annoying background noise, some of the US liberal establishment’s fake news and libelous claims, likestories made-up by CNN – are beginning to be challenged in the courts – which is causing a panic on many mainstream editorial news desks across America.

This latest challenge to Newsweek and its shamed staff writer Kurt Eichenwald follows on the current ‘blow-back’ trend line…


RT International reports…

Sputnik and RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan commented on the removal by Newsweek of false stories about Trump “conspiring with Russia,” saying it “deleted the lies about us, fearing court proceedings.”

We’ll continue explaining to various newsweeks that lying is bad,” Simonyan told Sputnik.

Her comments come after Newsweek was forced to take down two erroneous articles by journalistKurt Eichenwald, claiming that US President Donald Trump had conspired with Russia, as well as smearing former Sputnik editor William Moran.

On Friday, Moran said that a settlement had been reached, but did not provide any further details, saying that the deal was confidential between the two sides.
In October, Moran mistakenly attributed an article by Eichenwald to Clinton confidant Sidney Blumenthal and, realizing his mistake, deleted the article 20 minutes later. However, while the piece was online, Eichenwald saw it and imagined collusion between the Trump campaign, Sputnik, and Wikileaks.

At the time, numerous media outlets (some usually quite critical of Russia) spoke out against Eichenwald. The Washington Post said that Eichenwald “is at best misleading,” while BuzzFeed proved that Trump and Moran quoted the same erroneous tweet, which was widespread online.

Moran then contacted Eichenwald, attempting to clarify the situation and expecting Eichenwald to retract the story.

That, however, did not happen. Instead, Eichenwald asked him to stay silent in exchange for a job as political reporter with The New Republic, and warned him about the potential consequences if the young journalist refused.

Moran turned down the offer and went public with his version of events.
Moran has left the field of journalism and is currently pursuing a law degree, Sputnik news agency said.

Newsweek is an established brand of 80 years and yet it is not even in Sputnik’s league in terms of global web traffic and performance,” Patrick Henningsen, geopolitical analyst and executive editor at 21stCenturyWire.com, said. News outlets like RT and Sputnik are winning in the ratings battle with many US and UK English language media platforms, he said, and explained why this is happening.

It is simply because the Russia-based English language outlets are filling a demand for real international news and edgy opinion. They are simply feeding a massive audience out there which has been intentionally neglected for decades by Western establishment media conglomerates who have always enjoyed a monopoly on the global English language market. A network like RT, and a website like Sputnik, are only filling a demand which was always there.”


Richard Dawkins university event cancelled after his criticism of Islam

We all know that Dawkins is against ALL religion.

I’m not a follower of Milo nor any sort of fan of Dawkins’ views BUT I would go to the end of the earth to defend his right to express them.

Not so for the liberal fascists!

RICHARD DAWKINS EVENT IN BERKELEY CANCELED AFTER ORGANIZERS DISCOVER HIS VIEWS ON ISLAM


21 July, 2017

An event in Berkeley featuring Richard Dawkins has reportedly been canceled after organizers learned about his critical view of Islam.


According to Berkeleyside, the event in question was organized by progressive radio station KPFA.

Dawkins, a notorious atheist and harshly outspoken critic of all religions, was to appear on-stage and talk about his latest book ‘Science in the Soul: Collected Writings of a Passionate Rationalist.’

Berkeleyside reports that KPFA sang praises for Dawkins and the book – until a number of his anti-Islam tweets came to their attention.

Subsequently, the outlet states, the station sent an email to all ticket buyers that read, “we had booked this event based entirely on his excellent new book on science when we didn’t know he had offended and hurt – in his tweets and other comments on Islam, so many people.”

KPFA does not endorse hurtful speech. While KPFA emphatically supports serious free speech, we do not support abusive speech. We apologize for not having had broader knowledge of Dawkins views much earlier.”

Putting the sheer insanity of the suggestion that one could know who Richard Dawkins is and not be aware of his hatred for Islam, it’s of course interesting that KPFA took offence with the author’s critique of Islam specifically.

Dawkins addressed that point in a statement.

I am known as a frequent critic of Christianity and have never been de-platformed for that,” the statement reads. “Why do you give Islam a free pass? Why is it fine to criticize Christianity but not Islam?”

Listen to some of Richard Dawkins’ statements on Christianity below.


Dawkins’ statement goes on to call into question the notion that he has spoken about Islam in an “abusive” manner.

You say I use ‘abusive speech’ about Islam,” it reads. “I would seriously – I mean it – like to hear what examples of my ‘abusive speech’ you had in mind. When you fail to discover any, I presume you will issue a public apology.”

While no one involved in the matter has mentioned exactly what tweets provoked KPFA, Berkeleyside reports, “a perusal of Dawkins’ recent tweets shows that he comments often about Islam, but he also comments about other religions.”

Dawkins has sent out tweets and made statements that are critical of extremist Muslims, the female genital mutilation practiced by some Muslim societies, and the requirement that women must wear burkas.”

Apparently that’s “abusive” to progressives.


US military poisoned water of an entire town in Washington state

Entire town in Washington 'trapped': Military poisoned water supply, homes unsellable


19 July, 2017
An entire town in Washington state is feeling the wrath of the world's largest polluter — the US military — now their water is dangerously toxic. 

Toxic chemicals have permeated the water supply of Washington's Whidbey Island, contaminating schools, homes, businesses, and a hospital, for years, but — even at levels considered 400 percent over what the EPA considers acceptable — the U.S. Navy hasn't taken full responsibility for the disastrous mess, much less done anything to ameliorate the problem. 

Already coping with inadequate supplies of potable water, Whidbey Islanders have had their fill of the Navy's horrendous treatment of the environment with noxious chemicals and harrowingly loud noise. Indeed, Truthout reports — much like Flint, Michigan — many residents have no option but to use bottled water for all their needs. 
"Residents are being provided bottled water by the Navy, but warned not to drink, cook or water their vegetable gardens," Citizens for Ebeys Reserve (COER) member, Cate Andrews, told Truthout. "The Navy says, 'Don't worry about showering,' but research has shown that these chemicals are transmitted through dermal absorption. Homes valued at over $1 million are unsalable, and people are trapped."

She added, 
"The Navy has known of private contaminated wells for years, and is only now taking action after a threat of public exposure."
COER is committed to protecting the land, water, and overall environment of Whidbey Island from what sounds like an all-out careless assault by the Navy — particularly given the nature of the chemical contaminants. Truthout notes,
"The chemicals, Perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS) and Perfluoroheptanoic acid (PFHpA), are perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), also called PFCs, and come from the AFFF firefighting foam used in training exercises at the Navy's Outlying Landing Field (OLF) in Coupeville and Ault Field in Oak Harbor, the latter of which is at Naval Air Station Whidbey."
But the contaminants haven't simply inundated a couple wells or remained confined to a limited area, as Rick Abraham — who has focused on toxic pollution as an advocate in the public interest for three decades — ominously explained,
"They were found in the aquifer beneath the OLF airstrip in October of 2016 and are known to have migrated off-site to contaminate public and private drinking water."
One contaminated well in Coupeville next to the OLF — incidentally left open and unprotected — still services hundreds of homes, businesses, schools, and even Whidbey General Hospital. 

Abraham, who has investigated PFAS contamination in multiple states, says many families near OLF were forced into using bottled water for all their needs beginning late last year — for cooking, drinking, teeth-brushing, and even watering food gardens — rebuffing the Navy's egregiously lax attitude regarding the pernicious chemicals in favor of sensibility and concern for their loved ones. 
Indeed, while it mawkishly claims to care about the public and, vaguely, that steps are being taken, the Navy hasn't done much to alleviate searing criticism of its consciously negligent decimation of the environment nor the untenable level of contamination of the island's already-limited potable water supply.
"It's deeply concerning," Mike Welding, with Naval Air Station Whidbey Island, told a local news outlet on December 15, 2016. "The Navy wants to do the right thing and make sure we take actions to ensure the health of people in the local community, especially when it comes from operations the Navy undertakes."
Some seven months later, the situation remains grim — and is likely to worsen. 
According to Truthout, the Navy substantially bolstered its fleet of "Growler" jets — the loudest aircraft on the planet — with an increased number of test flights and exercises certain to make the noise pollution issue maddeningly untenable. 
Worse, the Navy has received nearly unconscionable assistance from an unlikely source.
"Along with ongoing Navy obfuscation around the crisis," notes Truthout, "the Whidbey Island Health Department — which has described the Navy as a 'partner' — has actively worked with the Navy in shaping the health department's message about the contamination to the community. The health department also kept secret from the public a plan to test the wells in the community — at the Navy's request — and who also did not allow citizens to provide input for what was tested and at what levels."
Astonishingly, contamination with firefighting chemicals represents just one facet of the region's ambivalence toward its pompously dismissive military neighbor, as the report continues,
"Naval plans to conduct electromagnetic warfare training on the Olympic Peninsula, as well as the fact that they had already been doing so on state highways unbeknownst to residents, and news of the Navy being permitted to kill or harass nearly 12 million whales, dolphins, porpoises, sea lions and seals across the North Pacific Ocean over a five-year period are things people in this region have grown accustomed to hearing about their naval neighbors. 
"Pleas from residents about these issues (and many others they are concerned about) have for the most part been ignored, or sometimes residents have even been chided, by the Navy."
For years, people along the coastal Northwest, including Canadians, have reluctantly tolerated the Navy's endless procession of noisy aircraft and environmental irresponsibility; but the discovery the drinking water supply contained wholly unacceptable and damaging quantities of toxins — and its refusal to clean up the mess — has won new enemies. 


Events, like community Open Houses, the Navy arranges to improve relations with the public make no mention of the chemicals lurking in the island's water supply — as if residents' legitimate concerns are somehow unfounded.
But one glance at the entry for PFASs in the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry clearly evinces what has Whidbey Islanders livid with the Navy, as the substances can "affect the developing fetus and child, including possible changes in growth, learning, and behavior. In addition, they may decrease fertility and interfere with the body's natural hormones, increase cholesterol, affect the immune system, and even increase cancer risk."
And that's not necessarily the worst of it, either, as unnamed 'studies' cited by Truthout show PFASs wreak havoc on children's response to immunizations, increasing risk of infection from standard inoculations, while raised blood levels of PFHxS may increase the chances for developing attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and can "affect the function of sex hormone receptors." 


Even the questionably-named Environmental Protection Agency has a hand in the toxic contamination habits of the Navy across the country — listing acceptable levels for PFOA and PFOS at 70 parts per trillion (ppt) — a quantity many scientists and some states have taken to task as insufficient to protect anyone. Minnesota now puts the acceptable level of PFOS at 27 ppt and PFOA at 35 ppt — while Vermont issues a health advisory for PFOA at just 20 ppt, and suggests no level of PFOA acceptable for livestock drinking water.
Nevertheless, "On March 4, the Navy tested 27 monitoring wells it had previously installed at OLF Coupeville, where it found even higher levels of contamination in the aquifer in some of the wells. PFOA was found up to 1,190 ppt, PFOS up to 54.7, and PFBS up to 473 ppt. The Navy's 'plan' for testing these monitoring wells did not include testing for PFHxS or PFHpA, even though both were known to be in the water as well."
In a press release, Maryon Attwood of COER lamented,
"The testing of our water should not be a one-time event, and the analysis should identify the lowest detectable concentrations of those chemicals."
It took the Navy some time to even reluctantly admit polluting the potable supply — a problem it wants to solve just by forcing people to use countless bottles of water it now doles out — but that ignores the needs of the island's and region's diverse businesses with startling obstinance. It seems the government wants the affected citizenry to be content using individual, plastic bottles of water for literally all their needs — forever.
"Their offer of bottled water is patronizing when you consider the numbers of organic farms located on hundreds of acres on this island who sell their fruits and vegetables to some of the most well-known restaurants in Seattle," Andrews continued.

"Early on, we were told by several Navy staff that 'we' were collateral damage to the 'war on terror.' And while unbelievable at first glance, I now believe this to be true."
Similar to the lead contamination crisis in Flint for the government's sole culpability in poisoning residential and business water supplies, Whidbey Islanders just want safe water, straight answers, and a plan to prevent toxic contamination from growing even worse. 

But it doesn't appear the Navy wishes to cooperate — much less, take full responsibility for wrongs already committed. But, as Attwood stated simply, adding to a furious chorus growing in intensity around the U.S.,
"We have a right to know what's in the water we drink."